2013-11-22

Economic Tendency Survey November 2013

Economic Tendency Indicator gains another 2.4 points in November

The Economic Tendency Indicator rose 2.4 points from 101.7 in October to 104.1 in November and has gained more than 12 points over the past six months. The indicators for all sectors except private services increased. The manufacturing indicator climbed furthest, by just over 4 points, while the services indicator fell 0.6 points. All of the confidence indicators are above their historic averages, with the exception of the indicator for the building and civil engineering industry, which is slightly less than 3 points below the historic average.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry gained 4.1 points in November and is well above the historic average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: the assessment of current order books is less negative than before, and production plans are somewhat more optimistic. The assessment of current stocks of finished goods did not change appreciably; they are considered to be sufficient.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry gained 2.5 points in November but remains somewhat below the historic average. Both questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: the assessment of current order books is somewhat less negative, and employment plans have been revised up.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade gained 1.7 points in November and is now 4 points above the historic average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: sales have risen, and the assessment of stocks of goods is less negative than before. Expectations for sales in the coming months remain optimistic but have been revised down slightly.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector dropped for a second successive month, falling 0.6 points in November, but remains a couple of points above the historic average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator made a negative contribution: both demand and expectations were less positive than in October. Firms are more positive, however, about how their operations have developed.

The Consumer Confidence Indicator rose 2.9 points from 102.0 in October to 104.9 in November. Four of the five questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: consumers are more positive about both the current situation and the outlook for both their personal finances and the Swedish economy. Their assessment of whether it is a good time to make major purchases was unchanged from October.

Indicators

Bransch

Max-value

Min-value

Sep 2013

Oct 2013

Nov 2013

Change

Situation

  

Economic Tendency Indicator

118,0

69,6

98,0

101,7

104,1

2,4

+

  

Confidence Indicators:

         

Total Industry

120,0

69,7

100,8

103,2

104,7

1,5

+

  

Manufacturing

119,0

66,4

94,3

101,7

105,8

4,1

+

  

Building and civil engineering

122,4

80,6

92,9

94,8

97,3

2,5

-

  

Retail Trade

125,2

68,2

97,7

102,3

104,0

1,7

+

  

Private Service Sector

118,3

72,8

104,5

102,8

102,2

-0,6

+

  

Consumer

119,9

49,6

97,2

102,0

104,9

2,9

+

  

Macro index (consumers)

120,8

72,7

99,7

102,3

104,3

2,0

+

  

Micro index (consumers)

118,0

45,0

97,1

101,4

104,4

3,0

+

  

Expected inflation (12 months ahead)

  

1,8

1,5

1,4

-0,1

   

Interest rate expectation:

         

1 year ahead

  

3,19

3,20

3,08

-0,12

   

2 years ahead

  

3,60

3,58

3,47

-0,11

   

5 years ahead

  

4,01

4,08

3,89

-0,19

   

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

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