2013-12-18

Economic Tendency Survey December 2013

Economic Tendency Indicator at its highest since 2011

The Economic Tendency Indicator rose 2.1 points from 104.0 in November to 106.1 in December and has gained more than 14 points over the past seven months. The indicators increased in all sectors except the retail trade, where the indicator was unchanged. The biggest climber was the building and civil engineering industry, which gained almost 4 points. For the first time in almost three years, all of the confidence indicators are above their historical average.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry gained 1.1 points in December and is well above the historical average. Only one of the three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: the assessment of current stocks of finished goods was more positive than before, but production plans were unchanged from November, and the assessment of current order books was slightly more negative.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry gained 3.8 points in December and is now just above the historical average. Both questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: employment plans were revised up significantly, while the assessment of current order books changed only marginally.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade was unchanged from November to December at almost 4 points above the historical average. One of the three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: the assessment of stocks of goods was less negative than before, while expectations for sales in the coming months were unchanged, and historical sales were less positive than in November.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector climbed 3.0 points in December after falling for two months and is now 5.7 points above the historical average. All three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: expectations for demand were revised up substantially, while historical demand and firms´ assessment of how their operations have developed made a more marginal contribution.

The Consumer Confidence Indicator rose 0.6 points from 104.8 in November to 105.4 in December. Three of the five questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: consumers were more positive about the current state of their personal finances, whether this is a good time to make major purchases, and the outlook for the Swedish economy over the next 12 months, while their view of the current state of the Swedish economy and expectations for their personal finances over the next 12 months made a negative contribution.

Indicators

Bransch

Max-value

Min-value

Oct 2013

Nov 2013

Dec 2013

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

118,0

69,6

101,9

104,0

106,1

2,1

+

Confidence Indicators:

       

Total Industry

120,3

69,6

103,3

104,9

106,9

2,0

+

Manufacturing

119,0

66,3

102,1

105,5

106,6

1,1

+

Building and civil engineering

122,5

80,5

95,3

97,1

100,9

3,8

+

Retail Trade

125,2

68,2

102,3

103,8

103,8

0,0

+

Private Service Sector

118,6

72,8

102,8

102,7

105,7

3,0

+

Consumer

119,9

49,5

101,3

104,8

105,4

0,6

+

Macro index (consumers)

120,8

72,6

101,9

104,1

104,9

0,8

+

Micro index (consumers)

118,0

44,9

101,0

104,3

105,0

0,7

+

Expected inflation (12 months ahead)

  

1,5

1,4

1,5

0,1

 

Interest rate expectation:

       

1 year ahead

  

3,20

3,08

3,02

-0,06

 

2 years ahead

  

3,58

3,47

3,41

-0,06

 

5 years ahead

  

4,08

3,89

3,91

0,02

 

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

Subscribe to our newsletters

Email

Newsletters:
Current reports on the economy
Working Papers