2014-01-30

Economic Tendency Survey January 2014

Tendency indicator up more than 20 points in just over a year

The Economic Tendency Indicator rose a further 1.5 points from 106.3 in December to 107.8 in January, its highest level since June 2011. The indicator has gained more than 20 points since bottoming out in November 2012. The indicators for the manufacturing industry, retail trade and private service sector all increased — the retail indicator by almost 4 points — while those for the building and civil engineering industry and consumer confidence fell slightly. All of the confidence indicators are well above their historical averages, except that for the building and civil engineering industry, which is now almost exactly in line with the historical average.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry gained 1.2 points in January and is now more than 8 points above the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator contributed to the increase: production plans were revised up, and the assessment of current stocks of finished goods was a shade more positive, but the assessment of current order books was somewhat more negative.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry fell 1.2 points in January and is now 0.1 points below the historical average. Both of the questions included in the indicator made a negative contribution: employment plans were revised down, and the assessment of current order books was slightly more negative than in December.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade gained 3.8 points in January and is now almost 8 points above the historical average. All three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: historical sales were better than in December, the assessment of stocks of goods was less negative, and expectations for sales in the coming months were more optimistic.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector gained 2.6 points in January and is now slightly more than 8 points above the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: both historical demand and firms´ assessment of how their operations have developed were better than in December, but expectations for demand in the coming months were unchanged.

The Consumer Confidence Indicator fell 1.6 points from 104.8 in December to 103.2 in January. Four of the five questions included in the indicator made a negative contribution; only consumers´ view of the outlook for the Swedish economy over the next 12 months was more positive. Expectations for their personal finances were less optimistic, and their view of the current state of both the Swedish economy and their personal finances, as well as whether now is a good time to make major purchases, was less positive than in December.

Indicators

Bransch

Max-value

Min-value

Nov 2013

Dec 2013

Jan 2014

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

118,2

69,5

103,9

106,3

107,8

1,5

+

Confidence Indicators:

       

Total Industry

120,1

69,6

104,7

107,2

109,7

2,5

+

Manufacturing

119,5

66,3

105,2

107,0

108,2

1,2

+

Building and civil engineering

122,5

80,5

97,3

101,1

99,9

-1,2

-

Retail Trade

125,2

68,1

104,2

104,1

107,9

3,8

+

Private Service Sector

118,7

72,7

102,8

106,0

108,6

2,6

+

Consumer

119,9

49,9

104,4

104,8

103,2

-1,6

+

Macro index (consumers)

120,8

72,6

104,0

104,8

106,0

1,2

+

Micro index (consumers)

118,1

44,8

103,9

104,2

99,9

-4,3

-

Expected inflation (12 months ahead)

  

1,4

1,5

1,1

-0,4

 

Interest rate expectation:

       

1 year ahead

  

3,08

3,02

2,83

-0,19

 

2 years ahead

  

3,47

3,41

3,33

-0,08

 

5 years ahead

  

3,89

3,91

3,89

-0,02

 

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

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