2014-04-29

Economic Tendency Survey April 2014

Economic Tendency Indicator rebounds after two months in decline

The Economic Tendency Indicator climbed 1.5 points from 101.1 in March to 102.6 in April after falling more than 5 points in February and March. The manufacturing and retail indicators accounted for most of the improvement, with the indicators for building and civil engineering and private services almost unchanged, and the consumer indicator falling slightly. The indicators for building and civil engineering and consumer confidence are marginally below, and the other indicators above, the historical average.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry climbed 3.2 points in April after sliding more than 7 points in the two previous months and is now back above the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator contributed to the increase: the assessment of current order books was more positive and production plans were revised up, while the assessment of current stocks of finished goods was slightly more negative.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry was largely unchanged in April and remains close to the historical average. The two questions included in the indicator made contrasting contributions: the assessment of current order books was more positive, while employment plans were revised down slightly.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade climbed 2.7 points in April and is well above the historical average. All three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: both the assessment of stocks of goods and historical sales were more positive, and expectations for sales in the coming months were more optimistic.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector was almost unchanged in April and is still well above the historical average. Historical demand was unchanged from March, while expectations for demand in the coming months were slightly less optimistic and firms´ assessment of how their operations have developed was more positive.

The consumer confidence indicator dropped 0.6 points from 99.6 in March to 99.0 in April and is just below the historical average. Three of the five questions included in the indicator made a negative contribution: the largest negative changes were in the assessment of the Swedish economy both at present and over the next 12 months.

Indicators

Bransch

Max-value

Min-value

Feb 2014

Mar 2014

Apr 2014

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

118,0

69,1

104,1

101,1

102,6

1,5

+

Confidence Indicators:

       

Total Industry

120,0

69,2

106,6

103,5

105,2

1,7

+

Manufacturing

119,1

65,8

103,3

99,5

102,7

3,2

+

Building and civil engineering

122,7

80,4

103,5

99,5

99,6

0,1

=

Retail Trade

125,1

67,9

106,2

106,0

108,7

2,7

+

Private Service Sector

118,7

72,6

105,8

103,5

103,7

0,2

+

Consumer

120,1

48,8

100,3

99,6

99,0

-0,6

-

Macro index (consumers)

120,9

72,0

103,9

100,9

98,1

-2,8

-

Micro index (consumers)

118,2

44,5

96,1

98,0

96,8

-1,2

-

Expected inflation (12 months ahead)

  

1,0

0,9

1,1

0,2

 

Interest rate expectation:

       

1 year ahead

  

2,88

2,89

2,86

-0,03

 

2 years ahead

  

3,33

3,39

3,29

-0,10

 

5 years ahead

  

3,86

4,04

3,89

-0,15

 

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

Subscribe to our newsletters

Email

Newsletters:
Current reports on the economy
Working Papers