2014-05-23

Economic Tendency Survey May 2014

Economic Tendency Indicator drops back in May

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell 3.6 points from 102.4 in April to 98.8 in May. The indicator for the manufacturing industry plunged 7.8 points and accounted for the bulk of the decrease. The service indicator also fell in May, but by just 1 point. The indicators for the building and civil engineering industry and the retail trade rose slightly, as did the consumer confidence indicator after four months in decline.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell 7.8 points in May to well below the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator contributed to the decrease: the assessment of current stocks of finished goods was considerably more negative and production plans were revised down significantly, while the assessment of current order books was marginally more positive.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry gained 1.7 points in May and is now once again slightly above the historical average. The assessment of current order books was less negative, while employment plans were revised down slightly.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade climbed 1.7 points in May and is well above the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: the assessment of both stocks of goods and historical sales were more positive, while expectations for sales in the coming months were less positive.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector fell 1 point in May and is now slightly more than 2 points above the historical average. Historical demand was slightly better than in April, while expectations for demand in the coming months were slightly less optimistic and firms' assessment of how their operations have developed was less positive.

The consumer confidence indicator rose 1.2 points from 99.2 in April to 100.4 in May. Two of the five questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: consumers´ expectations for their personal finances over the next 12 months and view of whether now is a good time to make major purchases were both more positive, while their view of the current state of their personal finances was unchanged, and their assessment of the Swedish economy both now and over the next 12 months was more negative.

Indicators

Industry

Max-value

Min-value

Mar 2014

Apr 2014

May 2014

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

118,0

69,1

101,1

102,4

98,8

-3,6

-

Confidence Indicators:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Industry

120,0

69,2

103,3

105,0

103,1

-1,9

+

Manufacturing

119,1

65,7

99,5

102,3

94,5

-7,8

-

Building and civil engineering

122,7

80,3

99,3

99,7

101,4

1,7

+

Retail Trade

125,1

67,9

106,1

108,8

110,5

1,7

++

Private Service Sector

118,9

72,5

103,3

103,4

102,4

-1,0

+

Consumer

120,1

48,7

100,0

99,2

100,4

1,2

=

Macro index (consumers)

120,9

72,0

101,0

98,7

98,4

-0,3

-

Micro index (consumers)

118,3

44,4

98,5

96,8

99,9

3,1

=

Expected inflation (12 months ahead)

 

 

0,9

1,1

1,1

0,0

 

Interest rate expectation:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 year ahead

 

 

2,89

2,86

2,83

-0,03

 

2 years ahead

 

 

3,39

3,29

3,29

0,00

 

5 years ahead

 

 

4,04

3,89

3,86

-0,03

 

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

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