2014-06-18

Economic Tendency Survey June 2014

Economic Tendency Indicator rallies in June

The Economic Tendency Indicator climbed 1.8 points from 99.2 in May to 101.0 in June after falling almost 3.5 points in May. The indicators for manufacturing and the building and civil engineering industry accounted for most of the improvement, while the retail and services indicators fell back slightly, and the consumer indicator was almost unchanged. The indicators for building and civil engineering and the retail trade are well above, and the other indicators relatively close to, the historical average.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry climbed 4.5 points in June after falling more than 7 points in May and is now back close to the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator contributed to the increase: the assessment of current stocks of finished goods was more positive, and production plans were revised up, while the assessment of current order books was slightly more negative.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry gained 4.0 points in June and is now almost 6.0 points above the historical average. Both of the questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: the assessment of current order books was more positive, and employment plans were revised up further.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade dropped 0.6 points in June but is still well above the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator made a negative contribution: historical sales were slightly less positive, and expectations for sales in the coming months were revised down, while the assessment of stocks of goods was more positive.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector fell 1.3 points in June but is still well above the historical average. All three questions included in the indicator made a negative contribution: historical demand and firms' assessment of how their operations have developed were less positive, and expectations for demand in the coming months were slightly less optimistic.

The consumer confidence indicator edged up 0.1 points in June and remains slightly more than 1 point above the historical average. Households were more optimistic about both their personal finances and the Swedish economy, and above all they were more positive about the current state of their personal finances.

Indicators

Bransch

Max-value

Min-value

Apr 2014

May 2014

Jun 2014

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

118,0

69,0

102,6

99,2

101,0

1,8

+

Confidence Indicators:

       

Total Industry

120,0

69,1

105,2

103,1

103,7

0,6

+

Manufacturing

119,2

65,6

102,8

95,3

99,8

4,5

=

Building and civil engineering

122,7

80,2

99,7

101,8

105,8

4,0

+

Retail Trade

125,0

67,8

109,0

110,2

109,6

-0,6

+

Private Service Sector

118,9

72,4

103,3

102,3

101,0

-1,3

+

Consumer

120,2

48,6

99,2

101,2

101,3

0,1

+

Macro index (consumers)

121,0

71,9

98,7

99,1

100,3

1,2

=

Micro index (consumers)

118,3

44,2

96,8

100,9

101,8

0,9

+

Expected inflation (12 months ahead)

  

1,1

1,1

1,1

0,0

 

Interest rate expectation:

       

1 year ahead

  

2,86

2,83

2,84

0,01

 

2 years ahead

  

3,29

3,29

3,25

-0,04

 

5 years ahead

  

3,89

3,86

3,84

-0,02

 

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

Subscribe to our newsletters

Email

Newsletters:
Current reports on the economy
Working Papers