2014-08-27

Economic Tendency Survey August 2014

Rising at a leisurely pace

The Economic Tendency Indicator climbed 2.4 points from 100.8 in July to 103.2 in August, its highest level since February. The manufacturing indicator rose 5.1 points and accounted for the bulk of the increase. The services indicator also gained a couple of points, while the retail and consumer indicators dropped 3.2 and 2.7 points respectively, and the building and civil engineering indicator also fell slightly.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry gained 5.1 points in August and is now once again well above the historical average. All three questions included in the indicator contributed to the increase: the assessment of current stocks of finished goods was more positive, the assessment of current order books was less negative, and production plans were revised up.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry fell 0.5 points in August and remains well above the historical average. Of the two questions included in the indicator, the assessment of current order books made a negative contribution, while employment plans were slightly more positive.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade dropped 3.2 points in August but is still well above the historical average. All three questions included in the indicator made a negative contribution: the biggest downward revision from July was for historical sales, while the negative contributions from the assessment of stocks of goods and expectations for sales in the coming months were more marginal.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector rose 1.9 points in August, taking it back above the historical average. All three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: both historical demand and firms' assessment of how their operations have developed were slightly better, and expectations for demand in the coming months were more optimistic.

The consumer confidence indicator fell 2.7 points from 99.6 in July to 96.9 in August, a level which indicates that households are more pessimistic about the economy than normal. It was primarily consumers´ view of major purchases, both at present and over the next 12 months, that contributed negatively in August.

Indicators

Bransch

Max-value

Min-value

Jun 2014

Jul 2014

Aug 2014

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

118,1

68,8

101,3

100,8

103,2

2,4

+

Confidence Indicators:

       

Total Industry

119,9

69,0

103,8

102,9

104,6

1,7

+

Manufacturing

119,2

65,4

100,4

101,6

106,7

5,1

+

Building and civil engineering

122,8

80,1

105,7

104,6

104,1

-0,5

+

Retail Trade

125,0

67,7

109,4

109,5

106,3

-3,2

+

Private Service Sector

119,0

72,3

101,0

99,1

101,0

1,9

=

Consumer

120,3

48,4

101,2

99,6

96,9

-2,7

-

Macro index (consumers)

121,0

71,7

100,9

101,1

103,0

1,9

+

Micro index (consumers)

118,4

44,1

101,9

99,4

90,7

-8,7

-

Expected inflation (12 months ahead)

  

1,1

0,7

0,2

-0,5

 

Interest rate expectation:

       

1 year ahead

  

2,84

2,78

2,62

-0,16

 

2 years ahead

  

3,25

3,21

3,09

-0,12

 

5 years ahead

  

3,84

3,91

3,65

-0,26

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

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