2014-09-24

Economic Tendency Survey September 2014

Service sector losing momentum

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell 1.9 points in September and is now 1.1 points above the historical average. The manufacturing indicator fell 3.7 points, and the services indicator 3 points, while the building and construction indicator and retail indicator both gained 1.3 points, and the consumer indicator 5.7 points after falling in the three previous months. Only the services indicator is now below the historical average.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell 3.7 points in September after gaining almost 5 points in August and is now not quite 3 points above the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator contributed to the decrease: the assessment of current stocks of finished goods was more negative, and production plans were revised down somewhat, while the assessment of current order books was unchanged and is somewhat more positive than normal.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry gained 1.3 points in September and is now slightly more than 5 points above the historical average. The assessment of current order books was less negative, and employment plans were revised up slightly.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade climbed 1.3 points in September and is now almost 8 points above the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: both historical sales and expectations for sales in the coming months were more positive, while the assessment of stocks of goods was somewhat more negative.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector dropped 3 points in September to slightly more than 2 points below the historical average. With the exception of the increase in August, the indicator has fallen every month since January this year, and it is now slightly more than 10 points below its January level. All three questions included in the indicator made a negative contribution: historical demand was weaker than in August, and both expectations of demand in the coming months and firms´ assessment of how their operations have developed were more negative.

The consumer confidence indicator jumped 5.7 points in September after dropping 3.3 points in August and is now back above the historical average. Four of the five questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: consumers' view of both their personal finances at present and whether now is a good time to make major purchases was considerably more positive, their assessment of the present state of the Swedish economy improved, and their expectations for their personal finances over the next 12 months were less negative, while their expectations for the Swedish economy over the next 12 months were more negative.

Indicators

Bransch

Max-value

Min-value

Jul 2014

Aug 2014

Sep 2014

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

118,1

68,8

100,8

103,0

101,1

-1,9

+

Confidence Indicators:

       

Total Industry

119,8

68,9

102,8

104,4

101,8

-2,6

+

Manufacturing

119,2

65,4

101,6

106,5

102,8

-3,7

+

Building and civil engineering

122,8

80,1

104,7

103,9

105,2

1,3

+

Retail Trade

125,0

67,6

109,8

106,5

107,8

1,3

+

Private Service Sector

119,0

72,2

99,1

100,8

97,8

-3,0

-

Consumer

120,3

48,3

100,0

96,7

102,4

5,7

+

Macro index (consumers)

121,1

71,7

101,1

102,8

102,5

-0,3

+

Micro index (consumers)

118,4

44,0

99,9

90,6

101,7

11,1

+

Expected inflation (12 months ahead)

  

0,7

0,2

0,0

-0,2

 

Interest rate expectation:

       

1 year ahead

  

2,78

2,62

2,57

-0,05

 

2 years ahead

  

3,21

3,09

3,14

0,05

 

5 years ahead

  

3,91

3,65

3,85

0,20

 

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

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