2015-11-25

Economic Tendency Survey November 2015

Economic Tendency Indicator drops back in November

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell 1.9 points from 108.4 in October to 106.5 in November but still points to stronger growth than normal in the Swedish economy. The retail, construction and services indicators rose, while the manufacturing indicator fell 4.4 points, but all remain above, or significantly above, their historical averages. The consumer indicator fell 3 points in November and is below the historical average.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell from 112.0 in October to 107.6 in November but still points to a stronger situation than normal. The decline was due partly to firms being less positive about their order books and partly to a slight downward revision of their production plans for the next three months, while their assessment of stocks of finished goods improved.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry edged up from 112.4 in October to 112.7 in November and continues to point to a much stronger situation than normal. The two components of the indicator moved in different directions: employment plans for the next three months became more optimistic and so made a positive contribution, while firms’ assessment of their order books deteriorated marginally and made a negative contribution.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade climbed further from 112.5 in October to 115.1 in November and remains well above the historical average. Two of its three components contributed to the increase: firms were more positive about sales in recent months and their stocks of goods, while expectations for sales over the next three months were marginally less positive but still much more optimistic than normal.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector gained almost a point from 105.7 in October to 106.5 in November and continues to point to a stronger overall situation than normal. The increase was due mainly to firms being more positive about how their operations have developed over the past three months, while their view of demand in recent months did not change appreciably and remains more positive than normal, and their expectations for demand over the next three months were as optimistic as before.

The consumer confidence indicator fell from 98.8 in October to 95.8 in November and continues to signal greater pessimism than normal. Expectations for the Swedish economy over the next 12 months fell even further and are well below the historical average. Consumers’ view of their personal finances, both now and over the next 12 months, also deteriorated somewhat, but is still more positive than normal. The only component to make a positive contribution to the indicator was the assessment of whether now is a good time to make major purchases, which did not change appreciably and remains much more positive than normal.

Indicators

 

Max

Min

Sep
2015

Oct
2015

Nov
2015

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

117,8

67,7

106,9

108,4

106,5

-1,9

+

Confidence indicators:

       

Total industry

119,2

67,7

108,3

109,8

110,2

0,4

++

Manufacturing

119,2

64,4

110,2

112,0

107,6

-4,4

+

Building and civil engineering

122,6

79,4

110,7

112,4

112,7

0,3

++

Retail Trade

124,3

67,0

111,2

112,5

115,1

2,6

++

Private service sectors

119,2

70,9

104,5

105,7

106,5

0,8

+

Consumer

120,9

46,9

98,3

98,8

95,8

-3,0

-


Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

 

Household expectations on inflation and interest rate

Revised method for calculating consumers´ inflation expectations. Read more.

 

Sep
2015

Oct
2015

Nov
2015

Change

Expected inflation 12 months ahead,
mean excluding extreme values (percent)

1,9

2,0

1,9

-0,1

Expected inflation 12 months ahead,
mean all answers (percent)

2,1

2,3

2,2

-0,1

Expected inflation 12 months ahead,
median (percent)

1,0

1,5

1,5

0,0

Interest rate expectation, mean excluding
extreme values (percent):

    

1 year ahead

2,06

2,12

1,99

-0,13

2 years ahead

2,60

2,67

2,66

-0,01

5 years ahead

3,40

3,39

3,57

0,18


             

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