2016-05-26

Economic Tendency Survey May 2016

Business confidence down but still in positive territory

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell for a fourth successive month in May but still points to somewhat stronger sentiment than normal. This optimism is limited to the business sector, however, as households are more pessimistic than normal, their view of both their personal finances and the Swedish economy weakening in May.

Firms remain relatively positive about demand. Recruitment plans, which have been above the historical average since autumn 2013, point to increased employment in the business sector over the next three months. All sectors report more optimistic recruitment plans than normal.

Firms in the manufacturing industry report relatively good growth in orders and production in recent months, but production plans for the next three months have been revised down and were below the historical average in May.

Building and civil engineering firms’ expectations of activity levels fell in May but continue to indicate stronger levels than normal. Although a high proportion of firms cited a shortage of labour as the main obstacle to increased activity, recruitment plans for the next three months remain much more optimistic than normal.

Retailers anticipate increased sales volumes in the coming months and continue to have more optimistic expectations than normal. A relatively high proportion anticipate higher selling prices over the next three months. Firms in the service sector are more restrained and expect demand for their services to increase roughly in line with the historical average in the coming months.

NIER publishes consumers’ expectations of housing prices

Consumers’ responses to two new questions about expectations of housing prices are published for the first time in the Economic Tendency Survey for May.

Get the time series for housing prices in the statistical database, table "Household, interest rates and inflation".

Indicators

 

Max

Min

Mar 2016

Apr 2016

May

2016

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

117,3

67,6

106,1

104,0

102,2

-1,8

+

Confidence indicators:

       

Total industry

119,2

67,3

106,4

106,1

103,7

-2,4

+

Manufacturing

121,6

64,3

111,6

107,2

105,3

-1,9

+

Building and civil engineering

122,3

79,2

110,3

110,3

110,1

-0,2

++

Retail Trade

124,1

66,8

105,0

106,9

105,5

-1,4

+

Private service sectors

119,4

70,8

101,2

102,0

100,1

-1,9

=

Consumer

121,2

46,5

99,3

96,6

96,0

-0,6

-

 

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The indicators are revised each month when the time series are seasonally adjusted. The values will often then move slightly up or down.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

 

Household expectations on inflation and interest rate

 

 

Mar 2016

Apr 2016

May 2016

Change

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent)

1,5

1,5

1,6

0,1

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean all answers (percent)

1,8

1,6

1,9

0,3

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, median (percent)

0,0

0,0

1,0

1,0

Interest rate expectation, mean excluding extreme values (percent):

    

1 year ahead

2,10

2,08

2,10

0,02

2 years ahead

2,61

2,59

2,60

0,01

5 years ahead

3,49

3,35

3,38

0,03


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