2016-06-22

Economic Tendency Survey June 2016

Consumers more upbeat in June

After falling for four months, the Economic Tendency Indicator rose again in June. The indicator, which summarises how firms and consumers view the economy, climbed 1 point to 103.2, which points to somewhat stronger economic growth than normal. The increase was due to the indicator for the service sector gaining 1.5 points and the consumer confidence indicator.

Firms in the manufacturing industry report healthy growth in new orders from the domestic market, while export orders have been slightly weaker. Employee numbers are said to have grown much more quickly than normal in recent months, and recruitment plans suggest unchanged employment in manufacturing in three months.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry once again points to a very strong situation in the sector. Firms in the sector are optimistic about the outlook for the next three months.

Retailers report increased sales over the past three months, and their overall impression of the sales situation is more positive than normal. Firms in the service sector also report increased demand, and their overall assessment of current order books is much more positive than normal. Not since late 2010 have service firms been as positive.

Consumers remain pessimistic about the outlook for the Swedish economy but are relatively upbeat about their personal finances.

Indicators

 

Max

Min

Apr
2016

May
2016

Jun
2016

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

117,4

67,5

103,9

102,2

103,2

1,0

+

Confidence indicators:

       

Total industry

119,2

67,2

106,1

103,8

104,4

0,6

+

Manufacturing

121,7

64,2

106,9

104,9

104,8

-0,1

+

Building and civil engineering

122,2

79,2

110,2

110,2

109,7

-0,5

+

Retail Trade

124,2

66,7

106,9

105,6

105,3

-0,3

+

Private service sectors

119,4

70,8

102,2

100,3

101,8

1,5

+

Consumer

121,3

46,3

96,6

96,5

98,7

2,2

-

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The indicators are revised each month when the time series are seasonally adjusted. The values will often then move slightly up or down.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

 

 

Household expectations on inflation and interest rate

 

Apr
2016

May
2016

Jun
2016

Change

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent)

1,5

1,6

1,9

0,3

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean all answers (percent)

1,6

1,9

2,2

0,3

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, median (percent)

0,0

1,0

1,5

0,5

Interest rate expectation, mean excluding extreme values

 

(percent):

    

1 year ahead

2,08

2,10

2,14

0,04

2 years ahead

2,59

2,60

2,69

0,09

5 years ahead

3,35

3,38

3,46

0,08

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