2016-09-28

Economic Tendency Survey September 2016

Consumers more upbeat about the economy

The Economic Tendency Indicator, which measures business and consumer confidence, rose from 100.1 in August to 103.0 in September, a level that points to somewhat stronger economic growth than normal. Both firms and consumers contributed to the increase. Consumer confidence has recovered markedly and is now back around the historical average.

The consumer confidence indicator jumped 5.8 points from 94.6 to 100.4. All of the subcomponents contributed to the increase, but the biggest change was in consumers’ expectations for the Swedish economy over the next 12 months.

The business confidence indicator rose 1 point to 105.1, which points to stronger sentiment than normal. Manufacturing and services made positive contributions, while the retail indicator fell back slightly. Firms in the construction sector continued to report a much stronger situation than normal.

Firms as a whole reported unchanged employment over the past three months, but with variations between sectors. Manufacturers reported a decrease in employment, while firms in the construction, retail and service sectors reported an increase. Firms’ recruitment plans for the next three months remain much more optimistic than normal.

Indicators

 

Max

Min

Jul
2016

Aug
2016

Sep
2016

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

117,4

67,3

102,3

100,1

103,0

2,9

+

Confidence indicators:

       

Total industry

119,1

67,0

105,2

104,1

105,1

1,0

+

Manufacturing

121,0

64,0

102,9

97,8

101,0

3,2

=

Building and civil engineering

122,1

79,0

109,6

110,5

110,1

-0,4

++

Retail Trade

124,2

66,5

104,9

103,5

101,2

-2,3

+

Private service sectors

119,2

70,6

103,6

104,5

105,6

1,1

+

Consumer

121,4

46,1

95,3

94,6

100,4

5,8

=

 

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The indicators are revised each month when the time series are seasonally adjusted. The values will often then move slightly up or down.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

 

Household expectations on inflation and interest rate

 

Jul
2016

Aug
2016

Sep
2016

Change

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent)

1,6

1,7

1,9

0,2

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean all answers (percent)

1,9

2,0

2,4

0,4

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, median (percent)

1,0

1,0

1,5

0,5

Interest rate expectation, mean excluding extreme values (percent):

    

1 year ahead

2,11

2,05

2,07

0,02

2 years ahead

2,62

2,53

2,57

0,04

5 years ahead

3,40

3,29

3,32

0,03

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