2016-11-24

Economic Tendency Survey November 2016

Retail the only sector to fall in November

The Economic Tendency Indicator climbed for a third successive month, from 106.2 in October to 107.9 in November, pointing to optimism in the economy. The manufacturing, construction and service indicators all rose, while only the retail indicator fell. Consumer confidence in the economy improved further, and consumers are more positive about their personal finances than for more than nine years.

Manufacturers’ production plans have been revised up further and point to much stronger growth in production than normal in the coming months. Expectations for production volumes have not been higher since May 2011.

The building and civil engineering industry reports strong employment growth in recent months, although it has slowed slightly. At the same time, a high proportion of firms continue to cite labour shortages as the main factor limiting production.

Retailers report slightly weaker sales growth than normal, but are still relatively upbeat about the current sales situation. Expectations for sales in the coming months remain optimistic.

The service sector reports increased demand in recent months and further improvements in its order books. Expectations for demand over the next three months are optimistic, and recruitment plans point to increased employment.

Indicators

 

Max

Min

Sep
2016

Oct
2016

Nov

2016

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

117,4

67,1

103,7

106,2

107,9

1,7

+

Confidence indicators:

       

Total industry

118,9

66,9

105,3

106,2

107,2

1,0

+

Manufacturing

121,3

63,9

102,3

105,9

108,5

2,6

+

Building and civil engineering

121,9

79,0

110,3

111,6

112,3

0,7

++

Retail Trade

124,3

66,3

101,5

104,3

103,0

-1,3

+

Private service sectors

119,2

70,4

105,3

105,1

106,1

1,0

+

Consumer

121,4

45,9

101,2

104,8

105,8

1,0


Note.
The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The indicators are revised each month when the time series are seasonally adjusted. The values will often then move slightly up or down.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

 

Household expectations on inflation and interest rate

 

Sep

2016

Oct
2016

Nov
2016

Change

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent)

1,9

2,0

2,4

0,4

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean all answers (percent)

2,4

2,3

2,9

0,6

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, median (percent)

1,5

1,5

2,0

0,5

Interest rate expectation, mean excluding extreme values

 (percent):

    

1 year ahead

2,07

2,06

2,06

0,00

2 years ahead

2,57

2,54

2,58

0,04

5 years ahead

3,32

3,39

3,45

0,06

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