2017-03-29

Economic Tendency Survey March 2017

Firms optimistic about the near future

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell for a third month from 110.8 in February to 109.2 in March due to a decline in the manufacturing and consumer indicators. However, it still points to much stronger sentiment in the economy than normal, and all the sector indicators are above or well above their historical averages.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell 3.3 points in March but remains much higher than normal. The decrease was due primarily to less optimistic production plans for the next few months.

The indicator for the building and civil engineering industry, on the other hand, gained 3.5 points as a result of even more positive order books and a substantial upward revision of recruitment plans.

The indicator for the retail trade did not change appreciably and remains slightly above the normal level. However, firms continued to report weaker historical sales growth than normal despite repeated expectations of the opposite.

The services indicator was also largely unchanged and points to a strong situation and optimistic expectations.

The consumer confidence indicator fell 1.7 points, due mainly to consumer being slightly less positive about their personal finances than in February. Their view of the Swedish economy was largely unchanged and is still in line with the historical average.

Indicators

 

Max

Min

Jan

2017

Feb

2017

Mar

2017

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

117,1

67,0

111,4

110,8

109,2

-1,6

+

Confidence indicators:

       

Total industry

118,9

66,8

108,6

108,7

108,5

-0,2

+

Manufacturing

121,0

64,1

118,1

116,0

112,7

-3,3

++

Building and civil engineering

121,7

78,9

110,1

111,1

114,6

3,5

++

Retail Trade

124,5

66,0

99,3

103,0

103,3

0,3

+

Private service sectors

119,2

70,2

105,7

105,9

105,7

-0,2

+

Consumer

121,5

45,5

104,1

104,3

102,6

-1,7

+


Note.
The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The indicators are revised each month when the time series are seasonally adjusted. The values will often then move slightly up or down.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

 

Household expectations on inflation and interest rate

 

Jan

2017

Feb

2017

Mar

2017

Change

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent)

2,2

2,7

2,5

-0,2

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean all answers (percent)

2,7

3,0

2,5

-0,5

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, median (percent)

2,0

2,0

2,0

0,0

Interest rate expectation, mean excluding extreme values (percent):

    

1 year ahead

2,19

2,22

2,21

-0,01

2 years ahead

2,68

2,68

2,66

-0,02

5 years ahead

3,44

3,44

3,43

-0,01

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