2017-05-24

Economic Tendency Survey May 2017

Households more positive about the Swedish economy

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell from 112.6 in April to 111.0 in May but still signals a very strong economy. The slight decrease was due to the manufacturing indicator dropping back again after its sharp rise in April. The consumer indicator climbed for a second month, thanks mainly to a more positive view of the outlook for the Swedish economy over the coming year.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry dropped back again in May after surging to a 20-year high in April, but is still well above the historical average at 117.0. Manufacturers report healthy growth in orders in recent months, and their production and recruitment plans for the coming months remain optimistic.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry climbed further in May and continues to signal a very strong situation.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade gained 1.1 points and is back in line with the historical average. Firms report slightly weaker sales growth than normal in recent months but are still optimistic about the future.

The confidence indicator for the service sector climbed 1.0 point in May and points to a stronger situation than normal. The increase was due to slightly more positive expectations for demand over the next three months.

Indicators

 

Max

Min

Mar

2017

Apr

2017

May

2017

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

117,0

67,0

109,0

112,6

111,0

-1,6

++

Confidence indicators:

       

Total industry

118,9

66,7

108,5

108,3

107,7

-0,6

+

Manufacturing

122,9

64,4

112,4

122,9

117,0

-5,9

++

Building and civil engineering

121,5

78,8

114,6

111,6

114,5

2,9

++

Retail Trade

124,6

65,9

102,8

99,0

100,1

1,1

=

Private service sectors 

119,3

70,1

105,7

103,1

104,1

1,0

+

Consumer

121,5

45,2

102,7

103,7

105,9

2,2

+

 

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The indicators are revised each month when the time series are seasonally adjusted. The values will often then move slightly up or down.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

 

Household expectations on inflation and interest rate

 

Mar 2017

Apr 2017

May 2017

Change

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent)

2,5

2,4

2,4

0,0

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean all answers (percent)

2,5

3,4

2,8

-0,6

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, median (percent)

2,0

2,0

2,0

0,0

Interest rate expectation, mean excluding extreme values (percent):

    

1 year ahead

2,21

2,25

2,17

-0,08

2 years ahead

2,66

2,72

2,66

-0,06

5 years ahead

3,43

3,45

3,40

-0,05

Subscribe to our newsletters

Email

Newsletters:
Current reports on the economy
Working Papers