2017-06-21

Economic Tendency Survey June 2017

Retailers more upbeat

The Economic Tendency Indicator climbed from 111.7 in May to 112.1 in June and continues to signal considerable optimism in the economy. The retail indicator stands out, gaining no fewer than 6.9 points in June. The manufacturing indicator also rose, while the construction indicator fell. Consumers remain positive about their personal finances, but their assessment of the economy fell back after rising in May.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry continues to show a very strong situation. Above all, manufacturers are unusually happy with their order books. Employee numbers are reported to have increased in recent months, and optimistic recruitment plans for the next three months point to further job creation.

Firms in the building and civil engineering industry also remain positive about their order books. Expectations for activity are still relatively strong but have trended down during the first part of the year. A higher proportion of residential developers are reporting labour shortages as the main obstacle to increased activity, despite strong employment growth in recent months.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade jumped 6.9 points in June and now signals a much stronger situation than normal. The surge was due mainly to better sales in recent months and decreased dissatisfaction with stock levels.

The indicator for the service sector did not change appreciably in June and remains slightly above the historical average. Firms are still relatively happy with current business volumes, and their recruitment plans for the next three months are very optimistic.

Indicators

 

Max

Min

Apr
2017

May
2017

Jun
2017

Change

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

116,9

67,0

112,4

111,7

112,1

0,4

++

Confidence indicators:

       

Total industry

118,9

66,6

108,3

108,3

110,3

2,0

++

Manufacturing

122,4

64,5

122,4

118,2

119,9

1,7

++

Building and civil engineering

121,5

78,8

111,1

114,2

112,1

-2,1

++

Retail Trade

124,6

65,9

99,2

100,3

107,2

6,9

+

Private service sectors

119,3

70,0

103,1

104,5

104,6

0,1

+

Consumer

121,6

45,1

103,7

105,6

102,5

-3,1

+


Note.
The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The indicators are revised each month when the time series are seasonally adjusted. The values will often then move slightly up or down.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

 

Household expectations on inflation and interest rate

 

Apr
2017

May
2017

Jun
2017

Change

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent)

2,4

2,4

2,6

0,2

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean all answers (percent)

3,4

2,8

3,1

0,3

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, median (percent)

2,0

2,0

2,0

0,0

Interest rate expectation, mean excluding extreme values (percent):

    

1 year ahead

2,25

2,17

2,20

0,03

2 years ahead

2,72

2,66

2,65

-0,01

5 years ahead

3,45

3,40

3,42

0,02

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