Broad rise in the Economic Tendency Indicator

The Economic Tendency Indicator climbed 1.9 points in April to 95.0 but still shows weaker sentiment than normal in the economy. All parts of the economy contributed to the rise. The biggest rise was in the retail sector, where sentiment is stronger than normal for the first time since June 2022. The indicator was kept below the historical average by pessimism among consumers and in services. Sentiment in the retail trade climbed above the historical average for the first time since June 2022.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry gained 1.9 points and is now back at normal levels. The improvement was due to greater optimism about production volumes over the next three months.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry rose to 97.0. Builders’ expectations for the coming year, which have been unusually pessimistic for the past two years, have bounced back strongly and are now above the historical average for the first time since January 2022.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade climbed 4.4 points to 102.7. The indicator for food retailers gained almost 7 points, while the indicator for specialist retailers edged up 0.4 points.

The confidence indicator for the service sector rose to 94.2. Six in ten firms reported insufficient demand as a constraint on their business at present, which is a slight increase from when the question was last asked in January.

The consumer confidence indicator rose for a seventh successive month to 88.9, but consumers remain pessimistic.

In the total business sector, fewer companies than normal believe in increased sales prices over the next three months. It is the first time since April 2021 that expectations are lower than the historical average.